You can predict employee turnover by analysing patterns in employee behaviour, engagement levels, and work personality alignment to identify churn risks before they resign.
Key takeaways
- Predicting turnover requires a shift from reactive exit interviews to proactive people intelligence and data analysis.
- Disengagement often manifests as subtle changes in communication, productivity, and alignment with work personality preferences.
- Managers can use predictive indicators like the Compono Culture, Engagement & Performance Model to intervene early.
- Successful retention strategies rely on understanding individual motivations rather than applying one-size-fits-all benefits.
Losing a key team member is rarely just about the empty desk. It is the lost institutional knowledge, the dip in team morale, and the significant financial hit of recruiting and training a replacement. For most HR leaders, the goal is to stop asking "why did they leave?" and start asking "how can we tell they are thinking about it?"
Predicting employee turnover is no longer a matter of guesswork or gut feeling. In today's workplace, we have access to sophisticated data points that signal when a person is drifting away from their role. By identifying these signals early, you can move from a defensive position to a proactive one, saving your culture and your bottom line.
At Compono, we have seen that the most effective way to predict employee turnover is to look at the intersection of a person's natural work personality and their current environment. When the work activities a person is asked to do no longer align with their natural preferences, the risk of turnover skyrockets.
Disengagement is the leading indicator of turnover, but it rarely happens overnight. It is usually a slow erosion of commitment that shows up in small, measurable ways. To predict employee turnover effectively, managers need to be trained to spot changes in baseline behaviour.
For example, a Campaigner who is usually the most vocal person in a brainstorming session might suddenly become quiet. Or an Evaluator who typically prides themselves on logical rigour might start submitting work that lacks its usual depth. These are not just performance issues – they are psychological signals of withdrawal.
We recommend using a framework like The Compono Culture, Engagement & Performance Model to track these shifts. By measuring engagement regularly, you can see the data-backed trends that suggest a specific department or individual is at risk of leaving long before they hand in their notice.
One of the most overlooked factors in turnover is "misalignment fatigue". This occurs when an employee is consistently forced to work against their natural grain. If you have a Helper stuck in a highly competitive, individualistic sales role with no team collaboration, they will eventually burn out and seek a more harmonious environment.
When you understand the work personality of your team, you can predict turnover by looking at their job descriptions. If the daily tasks are 80% misaligned with their personality type, they are a high-risk candidate for churn. This is why we built Compono Engage – it helps leaders map these personalities and ensure people are in roles that actually energise them.
By regularly reviewing how well a person's role fits their natural work personality, you can make small adjustments to their responsibilities. Often, a slight shift in focus is all it takes to move someone from the "at-risk" category back into being a high-performer.
Data is your best friend when trying to predict employee turnover. You should be looking at more than just tenure or salary. Modern people intelligence platforms allow you to look at a holistic view of the employee experience. Are people who haven't received a promotion in two years more likely to leave? Does turnover spike after a specific manager joins a team?
At Compono, we believe that data should be used to empower managers, not just monitor staff. When you centralise your people data, you start to see the "DNA" of turnover in your organisation. You might find that your Doers are leaving because they feel the processes are too chaotic, while your Pioneers are leaving because they feel stifled by too much red tape.
By segmenting your turnover data by personality type and engagement scores, you can create targeted retention plans. Instead of a generic pay rise for everyone, you might implement better process documentation for the frustrated Doers and more innovative projects for the Pioneers.
It is an old cliché because it is true: people don't leave companies, they leave managers. To predict employee turnover, you must also look at the leadership styles within your organisation. A highly directive leader may be perfect for a crisis, but they might drive away a team of highly skilled Advisors who value autonomy and collaboration.
If you see high turnover in a specific team, check the compatibility between the leader's style and the team's collective work personality. If a manager is unable to flex their style to meet the emotional needs of their staff, turnover is inevitable. Training leaders to recognise these dynamics is a critical step in any retention strategy.
Compono Develop provides the tools to help leaders grow their emotional intelligence and adapt their style to the people they lead. When a manager knows how to communicate with different personality types, they can address the root causes of turnover before they escalate into resignations.
Key insights
- Effective turnover prediction relies on combining engagement data with work personality insights.
- Role misalignment is a primary driver of quiet quitting and eventual turnover.
- Data-driven people intelligence allows for surgical retention interventions rather than broad, expensive fixes.
- Leadership flexibility is essential for maintaining a stable, high-performing team culture.
Predicting turnover is the first step toward building a resilient, high-performing organisation. By moving away from reactive measures and embracing people intelligence, you can protect your most valuable asset: your people.
Explore how the Compono platform can help you understand your team's DNA and keep your best talent engaged for the long term.
Look for shifts in baseline behaviour – such as decreased participation, a sudden drop in productivity, or a lack of enthusiasm in previously engaged employees. Using engagement surveys and personality assessments can help identify these risks early.
Key indicators include low engagement scores, a lack of career development opportunities, poor alignment between work personality and job tasks, and high levels of stress or burnout within a specific team.
Yes. By understanding a person's natural work personality, you can ensure they are in a role that motivates them. People who feel their work aligns with their natural strengths are significantly less likely to seek employment elsewhere.
Exit interviews tell you why someone has already decided to leave, which is often too late to change the outcome. Proactive prediction allows you to intervene while the employee is still with the company, giving you a chance to resolve their concerns.
Managers who cannot adapt their leadership style to the needs of their team often cause friction. For example, micromanaging a team of independent thinkers can lead to rapid disengagement and higher turnover rates.